The Physics of ROI
Why 90% of Enterprise Data is Noise—and How to Find the Signal that Drives Revenue.
Stop Guessing. Start Measuring Like a Physicist.
In high-energy physics, we smash particles together to find the truth hidden in billions of collision events. In business, you smash marketing dollars against customer behavior—but most executives are just staring at the "background noise" of vanity metrics.
I spent 6 years at CERN measuring electron size and 20 years at eBay, Google, and Optum measuring business value. I found that the methods are the same, but the rigor in business is missing.
This Manifesto is my playbook for bringing scientific truth to your P&L.
What's Inside
Part 1: The Mirror Analysis (Causality vs. Correlation)
The Concept: How I used particle physics signal extraction to solve the "Multi-Touch Attribution" crisis at eBay—and why your marketing dashboard is probably lying to you.
At CERN, we separate signal from background using rigorous statistical techniques. At eBay, I applied the same methodology to marketing attribution. The "Mirror Analysis" technique reveals what traditional last-click models hide: the true incremental value of each marketing channel.
Key Insight: Most attribution models measure correlation, not causation. They tell you what happened alongside a conversion, not what caused it.
Part 2: The Courage of Zero (Incrementality)
The Story: The $100 Million "Google Experiment." How we turned off paid search for 30% of the U.S. to prove that our "ROI" was an illusion—and how to run this test in your business without getting fired.
In 2013, eBay's internal models showed strong ROI on branded paid search. The truth? -63% return. We ran one of the largest marketing experiments in corporate history, turning off Google AdWords in 30% of U.S. markets.
The experiment was published in peer-reviewed research and cited by Harvard Business Review. It proved that sometimes the most valuable insight comes from having the courage to test whether your assumptions are wrong.
Key Insight: True ROI measurement requires controlled experiments, not dashboard reports.
Part 3: The Single Pane of Glass (Governance)
The Framework: How to build an "Executive Cockpit" that forces accountability (like we did at Optum) and prevents "Data Hide-and-Seek" during board meetings.
When Change Healthcare merged with Optum, executives needed real-time visibility across both organizations. We built a centralized Snowflake data warehouse with unified AI/BI accountability—the "Single Pane of Glass" that let CEOs steer the merger in real time.
Key Insight: Data governance isn't about control—it's about clarity. When everyone sees the same numbers, accountability follows naturally.
Who This Is For
For:
- CEOs, CDOs, and Private Equity Operating Partners who suspect their data teams are generating "reports" instead of revenue
- Executives tired of "data-driven" presentations that don't drive decisions
- Leaders who prefer profitable truths over comfortable lies
Not For:
- Managers looking for "growth hacks"
- Leaders who want validation, not insight
- Anyone satisfied with their current dashboards
About the Author
Patrick Deglon, PhD
Former VP of Data at Optum, Google, and eBay. PhD in Particle Physics from CERN.
Patrick doesn't just analyze data; he interrogates it until it confesses the truth. He led 240-person analytics organizations, saved Fortune 500 companies over $100M through rigorous measurement science, and invented methodologies still in use at eBay today.
He is currently the Founder of Blue Fermion and an NACD Governance Fellow.
Career Highlights:
- 6 years at CERN measuring fundamental particle properties
- 8 years at eBay leading customer analytics and marketing science
- 5 years at Google/Motorola engineering analytics at 500PB scale
- VP of Data at Optum leading the Change Healthcare merger integration
Ready to Apply the Physics?
This manifesto is theory. Your business needs practice.
If you want to install this level of rigor in your organization, let's talk. I have limited availability for Executive Advisory engagements—working with CEOs and CDOs who are ready to move beyond dashboards to decisions.
Book a 30-Minute Strategy Diagnostic
No pitch. No slides. Just a focused conversation about where physics-grade rigor would have the most impact on your business.
Get the PDF Version
Enter your email to download the complete 15-page PDF, including:
- The "Executive BS-Detector" Checklist for your next Data Review
- Step-by-step guide to running incrementality tests
- Template for building your Single Pane of Glass
Contact us to receive the full manifesto.
"Stop Guessing. Start Measuring. AI Strategy with Particle Physics Rigor."
— Patrick Deglon, Blue Fermion Advisory